생산자 물가(PPI), 유가, CPI

2023.02

관련글: 미국 수입물가 & 중국 생산자물가 

PPI가 CPI에 미세하게 선행한다는 말은 들었지만 유의미한지는 의문스럽다. (공급망 충격의 영향을 받은 걸로 추정되는 시기들에) 가끔씩 선행하기는 했지만, 대체로는 동행하며 CPI 추세를 확인하는 정도에 그치는 듯 한다.  

관련 페이퍼를 좀 더 찾아봐야겠다. 

---

2023.10.14

https://www.richmondfed.org/publications/research/economic_brief/2022/eb_22-38

과거 PPI와 CPI의 관계를 다룬 연구들은 PPI의 CPI 예측력이 그다지 높지 않다는 결과를 보였다. 

"In practice, the relationship between the PPI and consumer price indexes has not always been clear. The 1995 study "Do Producer Prices Lead Consumer Prices? (PDF)" found only a weak relationship between changes in producer prices and subsequent changes in consumer prices, while another 1995 study, "The Commodity-Consumer Price Connection: Fact or Fable?," found that the predictive power of PPI for core CPI inflation weakened starting in the mid-1980s.

A more recent paper, the 2022 paper "On the Wedge Between the PPI and CPI Inflation Indicators," found that PPI and CPI co-moved strongly prior to 2000 but have since diverged, as globalization has driven a wedge between the baskets of goods that the two price indexes measure."